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Baccarat Card Counting Guide | LeoVegas

Baccarat Card Counting Guide

Card counting may be most famously linked to blackjack, but did you know you can also count cards in baccarat? Timing a tie bet just right can significantly shift the odds in your favour.

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While card counting may not be very effective in baccarat, if you stick around we’ll reveal the magical moment when the house edge can swing your way by up to 60%!

Fundamentals of Card Counting

In card counting, you adjust a running total based on the value of the cards dealt. You add 1, subtract 1, or make no change to the total depending on the card's value. For example, in blackjack, if 2-6 is dealt, you add +1 to the total. This count helps determine whether to play a hand and how much to bet.

What Is Card Counting?

Card counting is the process of tracking dealt cards that are advantageous for the banker or player in baccarat, or beneficial for the dealer or player in blackjack. The goal is to determine the proportion of high or low cards remaining in the deck, which you can then base your betting decisions on.

For example, if the count is high in blackjack, it means there are more 10s, Js, Qs, Ks, and Aces remaining in the deck than usual, making it more likely that you will win. In this scenario, you would increase your usual stake.

Ed Thorp invented card counting for blackjack in the 1960s and later developed a system for baccarat. He not only wrote the famous book Beat the Dealer, but he also put his money where his mouth was by going to Las Vegas and winning $11,000 in a single weekend!

The biggest misconception about card counting is that it’s particularly difficult. In reality, you don't need to be a genius to pull it off. However, due to rule changes imposed by casinos in a bid to stop card counting, it has become far less profitable these days. Even under ideal conditions, a good win rate is $50 per hour, which is hardly going to make you a millionaire overnight.

Card Counting in Different Casino Games

Card counting in blackjack and baccarat works similarly. When a card is dealt, you adjust the count by adding 1, 0, or subtracting 1 based on its value. Then, you place your bet when the count reaches a predetermined number.

Mechanics of Baccarat Card Counting

Baccarat card counting is much simpler than you think. You don't need a PhD to grasp and implement its mechanics!

How Baccarat Card Counting Works

Thorp's baccarat card counting system has two distinct tallying methods depending on whether you want to bet on a banker or player. A high count for a player's bet indicates an increased number of low cards remaining in the deck, while a high count for a banker's bet means there are a lot of high cards left in the deck. In both scenarios, you bet when the count is 15+.

John May's counting system is all about identifying when no odd cards are remaining in the shoe. When this happens, the player and banker can only make five hand combinations (0, 2, 4, 6, or 8), thus doubling the chances of a tie occurring.

Baccarat card counting is most effective when there is high deck penetration. The average deck penetration for baccarat is 85% to 90% but can be as high as 98%. You should also find games that pay 9:1 for a tie to maximize your edge when using May's card counting system.

Baccarat Counting Systems

There are two main baccarat counting systems, one invented by Ed Thorp and the other by John May.

In Thorp's system, if you want to bet on the banker's hand, count as follows:

  • 2-4 - Add 1
  • 5 - Add 2
  • 6-9 - Subtract 1
  • 7 - Subtract 2
  • 10-A - No change to count

If you want to bet on the player's hand, then follow this count:

  • 2-3 - Subtract 1
  • 4-5 - Subtract 2
  • 6 and 9 - Add 1
  • 7-8 - Add 2
  • 10-A - No change to countTo get the true count, divide the running count by the number of decks remaining. Once the count reaches 15+, place the corresponding bet. The key thing to remember is that before you start counting, you need to choose whether to place a banker or player bet, and then use the correct counting method.

John May's system is completely different. You start the count at zero and add 1 every time an odd card is dealt. When the count reaches 160, there are no odd cards left, and you place a tie bet. Based on his calculations, you should have a 62% advantage. He advises betting up to 7.8% of your bankroll at this point.

Step-by-Step Guide to Counting Cards in Baccarat

Now that you've got a decent grasp of how counting cards in baccarat works, let's put your knowledge into practice!

Preparation

Baccarat is played with eight decks shuffled together and placed in a shoe. The cards are then dealt directly from the shoe.

Before you start counting cards in baccarat, you need to select your system. The two main systems are those created by Ed Thorp and John May. Neither requires any special tools or setup - just an understanding of the counting mechanisms.

Counting in Practice

Once you are comfortable with the systems, pick a baccarat table. With the Thorp system, you first decide whether to place a player or banker bet, then begin counting.

For example, if you want to bet on the banker and a 2 is dealt, you subtract 1 from the count. But if a 7 is dealt, you add 2. The number is called the running count. To calculate the true count, divide the running count by the number of decks remaining. So, if the running count is 42 and 6 decks remain, the true count is 7. Once the true count reaches 15+, it’s time to place a bet.

Luckily, the May system is much simpler. The count begins at zero, and every time an odd card is dealt, you add 1. When the running count gets to 160, bet on the tie. To keep track of the count, bring along a pen and notepad or practice keeping track in your head, as phones aren’t allowed at tables in brick and mortar casinos.

Strategies for Effective Card Counting in Baccarat

Even the legendary Ed Thorp was skeptical about his own system and said it wouldn't overcome the house edge. He did create an earlier baccarat counting system for a certain side bet, but once he demonstrated that it worked, the casino removed the beatable side bet.

The May system still works and should be your sole focus.

Optimal Betting Strategies

When using the May baccarat system, you need patience to wait until the count reaches 160 and it’s time to bet on the tie. It may take a while because according to May's calculations, it occurs 1 in every 10,000 hands. If 60 baccarat hands are played every hour, you will have to clock 166.7 hours at the table.

May, using the Kelly Criterion, concluded that based on the edge, you should bet 7.8% of your bankroll when the count reaches 160. So, if your bankroll is $10,000, it calls for a $780 wager.

Expert Opinions

Despite creating his baccarat card counting system, Dr. Ed Thorp concluded that the game was not beatable even with perfect counting and optimal betting conditions.

In contrast, John May stands behind his card counting baccarat method, which works very differently from Thorp's. He is convinced that betting on the tie when the count reaches 160 shifts the house edge in your favour by 62%. However, you’ll need to be patient as May noted the count only gets that high once in 10,000 hands.

FAQs

Is it possible to card count in baccarat?

It's possible to card count in baccarat. However, unlike in blackjack, baccarat card counting can only reduce the house edge from 1.06% to 0.93%, not overcome it.

What is the 1 3 2 4 baccarat strategy?

The 1 3 2 4 baccarat strategy is a progressive betting system in which you increase your wager after every win. Each number represents a multiplication of your initial bet. So, if your first wager is $10 and you win, you bet $30. If you win again, you bet $20, and so on. If you complete the progression or lose a bet, you return to your initial wager.

What is the 3 8 rule in baccarat?

The 3 8 rule in baccarat is a side bet that pays 200:1. To win, the following needs to happen:

  • The player must draw a third card.
  • The player's third card is an 8.
  • The banker's hand has three points after two cards.

How to calculate baccarat cards?

To calculate baccarat cards, assign 2-9 their face value, count Jack, Queen, and King as 0 points, and give an Ace 1 point.

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