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Mastering Blackjack Odds and Probability | LeoVegas

Blackjack Odds Guide

Blackjack is a perennial favourite at online casinos, just as it is on the casino floor. The straightforward play of aiming to get a better hand than the dealer, coupled with the decision-making elements, makes it very appealing to players.

However, to give blackjack your full attention, you’ll need to know the blackjack odds and probabilities. Blackjack odds can vary from table to table, while the house edge and probability can also change based on the rules of the game – even when side bets are added.

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In this guide to blackjack odds, you’ll find answers to all the most common questions about odds in blackjack and how they can change with different variants of the classic card game.

What Are the Odds in Blackjack?

The odds in blackjack tend to be 1:1 for a win and 3:2 for a win via blackjack. If there is some variation on the table that makes the game more favorable to the player, such as with additional payouts for different card combinations, sometimes, these blackjack odds will change.

As online blackjack has expanded the game greatly, you can also find many blackjack odds that simply didn’t exist decades ago. For example, in the 21+3 form of the game, a side bet can return at odds of 5:1, 10:1, 33:1, 35:1, or 100:1. In Perfect Pairs blackjack, odds range from 7:1 to 30:1.

Many tables also offer the insurance bet. With this side bet, you can place a bet on insurance after your hand, if the dealer’s hand has been dealt and the dealer’s up card is an ace. The blackjack odds for winning on the insurance bet are 2:1.

As it pays double the stake, many make an insurance bet to the same value as the initial bet because, if the initial bet loses, the insurance bet’s payout will cover the loss to allow you to break even. On the flip side, if it doesn’t win, you can try to win with your regular hand to cover the round of betting.

How to Calculate Blackjack Payouts Based on Odds?

You’ll almost always find that the basic blackjack odds for a win of any kind are 1:1. What this means is that when you place a 1.0 bet and win, the blackjack odds will return 2.0. The odds are read as “return: bet,” so a 5.0 bet at 1:1 returns 5.0, or 10.0 in total.

At 3:2 blackjack odds, a winning 5.0 bet returns a little bit more than the standard win, yielding a total of 12.50. Winning will usually double your bet in blackjack, but getting that ace and ten-card will return an additional 50 percent of the value of the bet.

For any of the other side bet returns, you can use the same method to calculate the blackjack odds. See the figure, such as 5:2, and the left side showing how much the value on the right side will be multiplied by in the event of a win. Here, a 3.50 bet that wins gets a 2.5x multiplier – as five is 2.5x greater than 2 – to win 8.75 and bring back the stake, making for a 12.25 total return.

What are the Player’s Odds in Blackjack?

The player’s odds in blackjack, or rather, the player’s likelihood of winning a hand in a standard game of blackjack, averages out at a little over 42 percent. However, as you get to dictate the play by taking cards or standing, there are different blackjack odds for players based on the value of the cards in your hand.

Here’s a list of the player’s blackjack odds of going bust for each hand value that you can get in the card game (the higher the percentage, the more likely you’ll go bust if you choose to Hit):

  • 0 to 11: 0%
  • 12: 31%
  • 13: 39%
  • 14: 56%
  • 15: 58%
  • 16: 62%
  • 17: 69%
  • 18: 77%
  • 19: 85%
  • 20: 92%
  • 21: 100%

As you can see from the list above, you’re more likely to go bust on any hand of 14 or more than you are to get a card that will claw you closer to the value of 21.

What are the Dealer’s Odds in Blackjack?

The odds of the dealer going bust in blackjack on each hand is close to 30 percent, but this can vary based on the rules of the table for the dealer. Some tables will say that the dealer has to stand on soft 16 and higher, while others say to stand on all 17s.

While it safeguards the table from a rogue dealer who’ll hit on 18s and above, it also forces the dealer to play hands further than you might in the context of the table. The blackjack odds for dealers going bust are also linked to the value of their initial hands.

A blackjack dealer’s odds of going bust are at their lowest when the hand values add up to seven or above, ranging from 17 percent to 26 percent. A hand between five and seven in value sees odds of going bust range from 40 percent to 42 percent. In between, an initial hand of two or three in value has a bust rate of 35 and 37 percent, respectively.

What is the Probability of Getting Blackjack?

The probability of getting a natural blackjack (your first two cards being an ace and a ten-value card) in single-deck blackjack is a bit over 4.8 percent. Winning a game of blackjack, generally speaking, with one deck in the shoe, is a bit over 42 percent.

The number of decks in the shoe alters the probability of you getting a natural blackjack or the cards needed to create a winning hand. Having more decks decreases the likelihood of you getting a natural blackjack slightly, but it increases the probability of getting an initial hand of 18 or above.

Of course, all of this swings as soon as the shoe is cut or a round is played. One reason why people like blackjack is because the situation and probabilities change with each hand dealt.

So, from the outset, a natural blackjack may be less than 4.8 percent, but if a few rounds pass with no ten or aces being shown, the likelihood increases.

Blackjack House Edge

The blackjack house edge varies depending on the number of decks in play. One deck gives the table a minimum house edge of 0.11 percent if the other rules and returns remain the same. Eight decks will see the house edge rise to 0.63 percent. The low house edge in all forms of the game is a big reason blackjack remains so popular.

With single-deck blackjack games, the blackjack odds can be swung to ensure that the house edge doesn’t drop too low. Some tables will have shorter returns for their blackjack odds, such as by reducing them from 3:2 to 6:5 or moving the mark at which the dealer stands.

Blackjack Side Bet Odds

Some blackjack games have the option of placing different side bets, can be won before the conclusion of the round. 21+3 and Perfect Pairs are the most popular forms of blackjack side bet variants, and here’re the odds for each one’s range of additional bets:

21+3 side bet odds

  • Flush (5:1)
  • Straight (10:1)
  • Three-of-a-Kind (33:1)
  • Straight Flush (35:1)
  • Three-of-a-Kind Flush (100:1)

Perfect Pairs side bet odds

  • Mixed Pair (7:1)
  • Colour-Match Pair (15:1)
  • Perfect Pair (30:1)

When it comes to the side bet blackjack odds, you can achieve a return without winning with your blackjack bet against the dealer. With all the above, it’s the cards in your hand rather than their values against that of the dealer that makes for a win or loss on the side bet.

Blackjack Odds FAQ

What are the odds of winning blackjack?

The odds of winning blackjack, or the probability of winning any given hand in blackjack, is just over 42 percent.

What type of blackjack has the best odds?

Assuming that the pays for blackjack and a win hold at 3:2 and 1:1, single-deck blackjack offers the best odds as it has the smallest house edge.

How to get better odds in blackjack?

You can get better odds in blackjack by playing games with fewer decks and by adhering to the optimal plays for your hand as laid out in Basic Strategy.

Are blackjack odds better with more players?

Whether you’re playing on your own or with five others, blackjack odds don’t change. However, knowing the other cards that are not in the shoe anymore can offer a small benefit to your probability calculations.

What are the blackjack odds if played perfectly?

If you play blackjack perfectly, in theory, you can cut the house edge to 0.5 percent. This doesn’t change the blackjack odds, but playing perfectly does increase your likelihood of winning each hand.

Does single-deck blackjack have better odds?

Single-deck blackjack will sometimes have worse odds than other forms of blackjack to cover the reduced house edge and the potential for the use of a perfect strategy.

What has better odds blackjack or roulette?

Standard European roulette has better odds than a game of blackjack without a range of side bets, offering an odds range of 1:1 to 35:1 rather than blackjack’s 1:1 to 2:1 for a win and insurance, respectively.

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