Baccarat Odds and Payouts
Baccarat is a casino card game which is played in both brick-and-mortar establishments and on online gambling platforms. There are various versions of baccarat, but the variation most commonly played in modern-day casinos is Punto Banco – which translates from Spanish as Player Banker.
As baccarat is typically less popular than other classic casino games such as blackjack or roulette, many wrongly assume that it is more complex to play. However, in reality, baccarat is a relatively simple game. Participants bet on the outcome of two hands. Specifically, the bet is on which hand, player or banker, will be closest to a value of nine, or whether both sets of cards will be of equal value (a tie).
In this article, we will discuss the odds associated with baccarat and therefore the probability of each of the game’s possible outcomes occurring. As a natural consequence of this exercise, we will also cover baccarat’s accompanying payout structure. By reading through the following sections, you will not only be able to understand the likelihood of your selected bet winning, but you will also gain an awareness of how much money you stand to earn in the event of a favourable outcome materialising.
How are odds calculated in Baccarat?
The game of baccarat is based around two opposing card sets, with the quality of each dependent on how close they are to an overall value of nine. Therefore, the odds of baccarat are positioned around the likelihood of each card set being strongest or of each having an equivalent value.
Those seated at a baccarat table, whether in an online or in-person setting, have three betting options – wager on the player hand, the banker hand, or a tie bet. The exact probability of each outcome emerging will be addressed in later sections, but it is worth noting at this stage which bet is most and least likely to secure you a win.
The banker hand, albeit by a slim margin, wins more often than the player hand, with a tied game a relatively rare event. Clearly, the reason why a tie is less likely to occur than a banker or player triumph is self-explanatory; it is highly unlikely that two randomly dealt card sets will possess the exact same value as one another. However, the explanation as to why the banker card set carries a slim advantage over the player hand is a little more complex and stems from the potential introduction of a third card.
Each hand will always be initially comprised of two cards with the value of each card set calculated before the game continues. In certain scenarios (based entirely on the value of opening two cards), the player hand will be dealt a third card. Any card added to the banker set will always occur after a third card has been drawn to the player hand and is only dispensed in certain circumstances, which depends on the value of the player’s third card – this is where the bias towards the banker formulates. This is because a third banker card will only be drawn if the additional player card improves the quality of that hand.
In an article which has been designed to purely produce an overview of baccarat odds and payouts, it would be impossible to review each of the permutations which would result in the player or banker hand being allocated a third card. However, provided you understand that the dynamic of a third card tips the balance in favour of the banker card set, and therefore increases the likelihood of this hand prevailing, you can make an informed decision when placing bets in a game of baccarat.
Note that there is also an extensive range of side bets available in baccarat which clearly also have their own accompanying set of odds and resultant payouts. As per any standard wager, the odds for these types of bets are calculated based on how likely they are to produce a successful outcome. The odds for most side bets are longer than ones tethered to the standard player, banker or tie wagers.
Lastly, when playing baccarat, participants must also account for the house edge. This phrase refers to the advantage the casino leverages over participants when engaging in any form of gambling, ensuring that in the long-run, to varying degrees, the house is more likely to win.
Banker Hand – Odds and Payout Terms
As previously referenced, the banke hand will most likely produce the strongest card set and therefore the odds of this outcome occurring are accordingly higher than any of the other two possible results.
The odds of a banker bet being successful is 45.86%, which means you have close to a 50/50 chance of winning. Although the odds of landing on a successful outcome are just shy of 50%, your payout terms are 1:1. This means, in the event of a winning bet, you will double your money which is a reduced return in comparison to a like-for-like payout on odds of 45.86%. However, this still represents a solid payout given the nature of the game.
Nevertheless, when leaving the table at the conclusion of the game, all participants must pay a 5% commission on their respective banker bet winnings, which certainly serves to erode some of the casino’s generosity in this regard.
As a banker victory is the most likely outcome to materialise, the house edge on banker bets is lower than any other standard baccarat wager. The banker bet only carries a 1.06% house edge, which is notably less than the advantage the casino has in most other card games.
Player Hand – Odds and Payout Terms
The odds of the player hand generating the closest value to nine is 44.63%, less than one percentage point behind the likelihood of the banker card set prevailing. Although it's slightly less likely that the player hand will be stronger than the banker card combination, the potential payout on offer is identical at 1:1. Therefore, once again, if you successfully predict this outcome will occur, you will receive double the value of your stake in returns. As it is less likely that a player bet will be successful, these payout terms are less advantageous than the ones afforded when wagering on a banker win.
However, importantly, participants are not required to pay a 5% commission on player bet earnings when exiting the table, which goes some way to mitigate against this shortfall.
Nevertheless, given the third card dynamic discussed earlier, the house edge is greater on player bets than it is in relation to wagers backing the banker hand, with the advantage leveraged at 1.24%.
Tie - Odds and Payout Terms
As previously referenced, a tie outcome is the least likely result to materialise in a game of baccarat. Unsurprisingly, a successful tie bet affords the greatest payout at 8:1 (so, if you were to land a successful $1 bet, you would receive $8 in return plus your original $1 stake).
However, there is only a 9.51% chance that a contest will end in a tie, so the vast majority of participants typically avoid placing this type of bet. In a scenario whereby a tie occurs, but no participants have backed this outcome, all bets will be declared a push. In essence, this means that wagers are now void, with all stakes subsequently returned.
As you would expect from a bet that has little chance of succeeding, the casino enjoys a considerable advantage in this context, presiding over a sizable 14.36%.
Baccarat Side Bets
As baccarat is based exclusively around two sets of card values, is quite simple and rather one-dimensional in nature, it can often feel like a repetitive game to play. Therefore, to liven up proceedings, casinos often facilitate side bets, whereby participants can wager on a number of different outcomes (outside the standard three already discussed). Of course, each side bet encompasses their own odds and payout variations.
The provision of side bets is entirely dependent on the casino in question; however, we have highlighted several of the most frequently offered:
- All red or all black – A bet that the colour of both cards in either hand will be the same. This bet normally carries a payout of between 22:1 and 24:1
- Bellagio match – Requires three cards to be drawn. All three cards must be of the same rank (i.e., all three cards are 5’s). Given how rare this outcome is, the accompanying payout is appropriately huge. A bet on this outcome occurring within a player hand is 75:1; the same wager in relation to the banker card set produces payout terms of 68:1.
- Big & Small - A bet on the total value of either 3, 4, 5, or 6 cards (clearly, for 5 or 6 cards to materialise, a three-card game must occur). If the value selected is accurate, participants will access the following payout terms: 4 card bets – 3:2, 5 or 6 card bets: 2:1
Baccarat Odds FAQs
Does baccarat have the best casino game odds?
Technically, no. As poker pits player against player, and therefore doesn’t involve the casino (and by extension its house edge), it is the game which affords the best odds. However, against various other casino games, baccarat has comparably more favourable odds.
Does baccarat have better odds than blackjack?
No – the house edge in blackjack is only 0.5%, so the odds of winning in this game are higher than in the baccarat tables (whereby a minimum 1.06% house advantage applies).
Which bet in baccarat has the highest winning percentage?
The banker bet, which has a 45.86% chance of winning.
Why is betting on the banker hand the best wager in baccarat?
When a third player card is required in baccarat, this automatically tips the balance in favour of the banker hand prevailing; this is because a third banker card is only drawn in circumstances where it is beneficial for this hand to receive an additional card. Therefore, the banker bet offers the smallest house advantage (1.06%).
Learn more about baccarat in our blog articles: